Every time there’s a post about a bottle being sold above retail at a secondary price, there are always a few comments about how buying any bottle above retail is “crazy” or that “no bottle is worth more than MSRP”. Bourboneur recently wrote a blog post about Why MSRP Is a Lie that offers a compelling perspective on MSRP.

First, he makes the point that MSRP was created as a simple pricing guideline for a predictable, drinker-focused bourbon market. As the industry shifted to long production cycles, artificial scarcity, allocations, online hype, and a secondary resale market, MSRP failed to evolve. The result is a pricing reference that no longer reflects reality, even though the industry continues to treat it as meaningful.

Modern bourbon pricing is driven by availability, how quickly bottles sell, and what buyers are willing to pay—not MSRP. When bottles are scarce, sell instantly, and command high prices, the market has already set their value. MSRP isn’t wrong; it’s simply static in a dynamic system, making it irrelevant as a “real” price.

During this time of year when allocated bottles drop, the debate about what a bottle is worth inevitably begins. Someone will comment something like ‘that’s a $70 bottle, you’re stupid if you pay anything more‘—knowing full well that the bottle would disappear in minutes if it could actually be found on a shelf at that price. In reality some people will overpay for the bottle because they don’t know what the “fair” market price is. Others will undervalue it because they got one years ago for retail because they knew a guy or were at the right place at the right time. But most will pay a ‘fair’ price for the bottle because, by definition, the ‘fair’ price is what the majority are willing to pay.

u/J44444444444444448 made a comment yesterday that I think summed it up well, “If you want it you’ll buy it. Waiting around to get lucky and find stuff at MSRP is like a needle in a haystack these days.”

The big question becomes what is a “fair” price for a bottle? I personally use the Bourboneur app which has the Bourbon Blue Book pricing guide. It provides low, average and high prices for bottles based on what people are actually paying for it. Obviously the blog they wrote was written to promote their app which they describe as “By aggregating real secondary-market data and presenting it neutrally, the Blue Book gives drinkers and collectors the context MSRP no longer can. It doesn’t tell you what you should pay. It shows you what people are paying — so you can decide whether it makes sense for you.”

Knowing what a bottle is really selling for helps me decide if a bottle is worth it to me. Some aren’t worth it to me, like the HAZMAT JD Tanyard Hill Rye, which goes for $600 to as high as $1,200. But if I see a Weller 12Y for $100, I’m buying it knowing that it typically goes for $125-$130.

MSRP is just that. It is a manufacturers “suggested” retail price and does not represent what a bottle is worth. Knowing what a bottle is actually worth is key in deciding what is a good price for me personally.